Global Outlook Summer 2020
The pandemic has inflicted an enormous human cost across the globe. The response, which has involved governments’ imposing a range of necessary measures designed to combat the spread of the disease, has inevitably had a major impact on global economic activity. The most recent Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) outlook, warned, “The crisis will cast a long shadow over the world”. While IMF projections do suggest the global economy is likely to bounce back in 2021 as economic activity hopefully normalizes, the uncertainty caused by the pandemic is clearly placing huge pressure on economies all around the world. The IMF’s economic assessment, published before Q1 GDP figures had been released, paints a bleak picture of economic prospects. The baseline projection, which suggests the world economy will contract 3% during 2020, assumes that in most countries, outbreaks peak during the second quarter before fading across the second half of the year, wi